In recent weeks, a good amount of print, virtual print, and watercooler talk has been dedicated to the Packers defense, or seeming lack thereof. Unfortunately the memory that burns brightest is their performance in the shootout in the desert in the playoffs last season. This despite an overall solid year. Many fans are currently panic stricken, believing wholeheartedly that any decent QB will tear the Packers defense to shreds. Of course there are a few example games, but really if those games are typical of a average performance, the Packers could in fact have one of the worst defenses that has ever been fielded in the NFL.

Of course the fear has been pampered by months of bombardment in the press, no obvious major moves made by the team to address the perceived weakness, and a preseason that seemingly played right into the storyline of fear that has been written.

However, I don’t agree with this reality. Dom is playing things close to the vest. I think that we’ve seen figments of things to come here and there, while at the same time lacking a complete whole to judge. We are left looking at trees; left to try to estimate the look of the forest. Fortunately for the Packers, so are their opponents.

The first place to look is the pass rush. Or perceived lack thereof. Last season, beyond week 5 or so, the strength of the Packers normal pass rush was clearly the outside rush, the interior rush made very little impact last season. However the Packers pass rush was pretty good overall last season. It’s failure was not season-wide, instead isolated to a couple of key games.

This summer in fact we saw the direct opposite during preseason games. The outside linebackers provided very little rush while the interior rushers did a nice job play after play of driving the pocket backwards. To my eyes at least, our interior rush has notably improved. However with the outside linebackers, the Packers starters have yet to see the field in much capacity. Fans have seemingly forgotten their play. But the starting OLB’s are back and ready to go for the regular season.

Combine the outside rush of last season with the inside rush that we’ve seen thus far this summer, and things have seemingly tremendously improved. To me the outside rush gets sacks and breaks plays, the inside rush steal’s the QB’s time and sets the throwing clock. While the Packers have not shown fans the whole yet, an improved pass rush, they have shown that they have the parts to assemble a significantly better pass rush than they have shown at any time during Dom Capers’ tenure.

In base sets I don’t think that the rush has improved that much, mainly due to Pickett’s presence. At the same time though, a base set implies a lack of WR’s, facing 21 or 12 personnel, and if 12 personnel is on the field against our base D, we aren’t treating an athletic TE as a WR schematically (as will be done to Finley this season). When facing teams in our base, opponent offenses aren’t optimized personnel-wise to throw the football anyway, and our nickel back isn’t on the field.

One schematic development that we have seen this summer is an in-stance under shift while in base defense by the defensive line; shifting from a 3-4 to a hybrid under 4-3. With that shift, we are largely in a Bob Sander’s D with Raji at UT and Clay in Kamp’s place (standing, hence the hybrid label), Jones in Hawk’s old place and Hawk in Pops’ old place. I think that shift was schemed to counter run personnel that align in a pass alignment, as it should eek more pass rush out of our base personnel, while at the same time weakening our run front. The nice thing about the shift as executed, being an in-stance shift late on the play clock, the O isn’t left with time to audible back into a run play. When Dom Capers was Miami’s defensive coordinator, a similar shift was extremely common and effective (their top pass rusher went on to earn DPOY honors). I would assume that if it proves to be effective, the shift would become a defensive audible (if it isn’t already) to be used if presnap “tells” give away a pass to Barnett/Hawk (whichever ILB calls D audibles). Interestingly enough, playing Pickett at LDE and Raji at NT makes this shift much more effective than if the opposite were true.

I do see the interior of the defensive line this year in nickel defense a cut above what was on the field last year. Raji pushes the pocket better than Jolly did. Raji-Jenkins is pretty much what we’ve seen thus far out of the starting defense. Given how good he has looked, it is almost a given that a Neal-Jenkins nickel interior exists, or is in the works. Mike Neal is a much better pass rusher than Jolly was, clearly already the 2nd best among the big men. I think that Neal really is one of the keys to improvement this season. He is so much better already than even the most optimistic among fans thought possible. Defensive lineman typically take a long time to adjust to the pro game. Mike Neal already looks like he will one day be a star. The Neal-Jenkins interior this season can be every bit as threatening a pass rushing group as the Williams-Jenkins interior DL that the Packers fielded in ’07. The biggest worry that I have is that Neal could hit the rookie wall late season. Hopefully staying in more of a situational/rotational role will prevent that in him.

I think that the decision to release Toribio is based heavily on the performance of Mike Neal. The question of how Raji is going to be rotated was answered by that cut. If the Packers kept Toribio, obviously Raji would be rotated on base downs. Dropping Toribio tells me that Raji will be rotated on nickel downs, Neal is the obvious rotation man (though we could see some Harrell too). This tells me the coaching staff thought that Raji’s nickel rotation is a better pass rusher than his base rotation was a run stuffer.

This then brings me to one of our biggest flaws in preseason up front. Aside from the lack of outside pass rush, our OLB’s had a rather severe lack of outside pocket contain. Twice TD’s were given up due to a lack of pocket containment. This is one place where our starting OLB’s are a significant cut above our backups. Jones and Matthews both have really good play awareness, and both have an exceptional short area burst. A QB that gets out of the pocket doesn’t nearly have as much time outside when our starting OLB’s are in the game. Both disengage their blocking faster than the backups do, and both are much faster than the backups at chasing a QB to the edge. I’m not sure that either of the TD’s that Collins gave up in coverage during the preseason would have occurred if our starting OLB’s were in the game.

And then the coverage. Collins clearly wasn’t giving it his all until the 3rd preseason game. The first two games he seemed to be giving a token effort at best. Elite safeties do a lot for a team’s pass coverage, and in the first two preseason games, we were playing without an elite S. In the 3rd game, Collins tried, we clearly still have our elite S. There was a pretty big difference. Unfortunately Peyton Manning took advantage of some of the on-field coaching that Collins was giving to rookie Morgan Burnett, but that’s fine as long as it doesn’t carry over to the regular season.

Tramon Williams is really one of the key defensive players this season. He’s shown continuous growth throughout his career so I’m not really concerned, but should he take his game to the next level, the Packers defense will be a whole lot better off. Not that he is bad, but elevation of his play will really put the finishing touch on the defense. His play, in my opinion, can be difference between an above average defense and an elite defense. Sam Shields as a nickel corner is very intriguing. Unlike all the times in the past few years where Bush at nickel, Shields can actually catch the ball (unlike punts, but that is a different story). Most people forgive Charles and Tramon in coverage when they give up plays, because they make so many big plays as well. Bush doesn’t really give up that many more plays, however a complete lack of big plays on his part leaves fans with a purely negative taste. Shields adds an additional ballhawking element to our D compared to the past, as does rookie safety Morgan Burnett. Even moreso than the Packers had in the past.

The Packers starting defense was pretty good in the preseason at two key things, big plays and on 3rd downs.

The Packers pass defense did give up a lot of passes in the preseason, but none of them would be referred to as bombs. The defense was able to contain the passing to short and intermediate routes. They were effective at breaking up deep plays, partially due to the coverage played much of the time on first and second downs. But the players executed and did not get burned deep.

The Packers starting defense had a very good 3rd down performance throughout preseason. Two years in a row the starting defense’s 3rd down performance in preseason is very overlooked, and 3rd down performance is perhaps the best barometer stat that exists to judge team performance. In 2009 the Packers defense was horrendous on 3rd downs in the preseason (by far the worst in the league, way over 50%), despite giving up very few points. In 2010 their defense gave up a lot more points, but the 3rd down performance drastically improved to a borderline elite number (33% against starting QB’s). Last year I was very cautionary because of our bad 3rd down performance, basically I felt that we were seeing a mirage that wasn’t going to carry over to the regular season; 3rd down performance doesn’t lie. And the Packers defense struggled at first during the 2009 regular season. This year I think that we are seeing a mirage as well, but in the exact opposite way, they are actually performing much better than they appear to on the surface. Holding the Colts starting offense, who have been one of the league’s top 3rd down performers on offense for many years, to less than 30% on 3rd downs, is pretty darn good play by the Packers defense.

There are a lot of questions with the Packers defense, but overall it has been a collection of trees that really doesn’t look a whole lot like a forest. But the forest is there, I think that the defense is going to be much better than it is given credit for right now. We got a lot of look at the underbrush in preseason, and a look at some bark, but most of the time, the redwoods in the forest were hiding, and the light was to dim to make out any shapes. But there is a forest there, when the lights are turned on in the regular season and all the biggest trees are visible, fans will see that there is a very fine forest there indeed.

Earlier in training camp, when asked about the offense, Aaron Rodgers stated that some new wrinkles have been added to what is already a relatively unique, highly complex offense. This of course has left me to ponder the question, whatever could they be?

Not having witnessed any training camp in person, where some of the wrinkles at least likely would be on display, occasionally, I am left to my own devices and which is pretty much pure speculation. What is the offense lacking, what could they do with the roster as built? Now at least for a moment forget fringe players, if they thought about it in the offseason, it isn’t something that requires a bubble player to work. Also know that it likely isn’t something totally new, there is very little in the way of totally original concepts in football, most that appears new has in fact been borrowed from elsewhere and just applied to the situation at hand, whether from the pros or the from the college level.

My thoughts immediately go to the running back position. I think that a clue can be taken from the running back that was drafted, James Starks. James is tall and lanky for a running back. However he was noted as an excellent receiver in college; his size his predraft workout numbers are shockingly similar to James Jones’ in almost every respect. Also to be noted, if there is one position that McCarthy seems to be least creative with, it is the halfback position. Odd, since halfbacks are ideal for gaining yards when they have the ball. When I think of the offense that is not only what I feel the most similar to the Packers’, but also the most likely to be copied by other NFL teams, the Saints are on my mind.

The big difference between the Saints offense and the Packers is the Saints X-factor runner/receiver, Reggie Bush. The Packers do in fact have a player at least vaguely similar to Bush in Brandon Jackson, both of them have as a primary weakness poor between the tackles vision when running, both have as a strength open field running. And both are very fast. Jackson to this point in his career has had very limited opportunities running the ball, playing primarily on 3rd downs. However he has become an accomplished 3rd down back, and can do all the tasks asked of him well. Jackson didn’t have many carries either in college, in fact a vast majority of this year’s rookie class had more carries in college than Jackson has had in college and the pros combined thus far.

This past week, in their preseason game against the Seahawks, we saw at least two plays use concepts with the back that haven’t been oft used in Green Bay. The first is that Brandon Jackson motioned out wide from the backfield, lining up at a WR position. The other was a small little screen pass to the interior of the line.

There are a lot of advantages to using Jackson as a receiver. First is that he will tend to draw a LB or S in coverage, removing their potential to blitz, QB spy, or aid with the coverage of other eligible receivers. Next is the fact that if you throw him the ball, you are giving it to him where he is best with it. Jackson is very good with the ball in his hands. He is shifty, fast, runs with power, and is all around difficult to tackle. If it wasn’t for the fact that he isn’t very good at getting past the DL, he’d be quite a good back. Out on the perimeter, you completely eliminate his vision issue. Fortunately, he does have very good hands. The quick turn-n-toss and 1 step slants are plays that Jackson should excel at running.

For some reason McCarthy just hasn’t seemed to have the screen game in his repertoire, or at least uses it sparsely at best. Unusual given that he runs a WCO. The perfect antidote to a defense that is rushing the passer a bit too aggressively is a screen pass. Make the defenders think about the screen at least. It seems that the team has tried to incorporate screens in the past, only to be met with failure during their attempts. Often the problem was not play design, but execution. This seems odd for the running backs since the running back coach was quite good at being the receiver on screen passes as a player. Due to the ability of our WR’s and TE’s to draw safeties deep, and the fact that our interior lineman are significantly younger and more mobile than our tackles, I would expect that much of our screen pass work would be to closer to the middle of the field than the perimeter.

Beyond expanding the role of the halfbacks, I think that McCarthy is going to push the limits with Jermichael Finley, and exploit the mismatch problem that he creates as much as he can. A frequent formation that we have seen already is Finley alone on one side of the line, and 3 WR’s on the other. Any team that dedicates extra coverage to Finley is a team that created a nice box count to run into or nice easy coverage for our WR’s to take care of. Undoubtedly the schematic potential if Quarless develops as hoped, paired with Finely, makes McCarthy giddy.

One thing that I have noticed this PS, beyond schematic items, is that Rodgers seems to be significantly more effective using a hard count or deceptive count while at the line, compared to years past.

Whatever this season’s wrinkles are, one can only hope that they contribute to taking our offense into the stratosphere, instead of getting a little use before discarding as ineffective.

The third preseason game is a critical time for many of the young players currently on the team. By the time the tape evaluation of the game is finished, the coaches will have a good idea of what the final roster will look like, the 4th preseason game is often too little too late. A look at couple players whose career is riding on this game.

Justin Harrell – There is no player on the roster that has drawn more ire than Justin Harrell, among fans and the press. Fortunately/unfortunately for him little of it is related to his play on the field, the problem being his lack thereof. After a strong showing against the Browns, where he looked like our 4th best lineman, possibly even higher, he came back with a poor showing against the Seahawks. Many excuses are floated around, from his back to distracted by his newborn child, any way you cut it though he didn’t play well. This week’s game very important for him. If he shows that the game against Seattle was just a fluke, he’s almost assured of a roster spot and could potentially challenge to start, or at least earn himself a significant amount of playing time. There is no player on the roster build to dominate at LDE as well as Justin is. He is virtually ideal for the spot. He is tall, long, very strong, stout against combo blocking, yet also has some quickness and pocket pushing power. Overall though his best trait is play awareness. Justin absolutely excels at locating the ball, and always has, his tackles per snap totals are high whenever he is on the field, and he never has that “lost” look that some defensive lineman, even good ones, have far too often.

Brett Swain – Interestingly, Swain actually has little competition from other wide receivers, the top 4 receivers being well ahead of him, the rest being well behind. His main competition is in the form of a very deep and talented group of tight ends. Swain has shown a little on the field as a receiver, though his primary way onto the roster will be through special team play. And the tight end group is tough to beat on special teams. He does have practice squad eligibility, for him that could in fact be a curse however when it comes to making the 53 man roster. Unfortunately for Swain, thus far he has proven to be relatively fragile. He needs to show that he is one of the very best on special teams this upcoming weekend.

Breno Giacomini – Breno is now on year 3 of the project to make him an NFL tackle, it is time to produce. He remains extremely inconsistent, and is coming off of two poor showings. If he is going to give coaches hope, and a reason to give him a roster spot, this weekend is his his last chance. Right tackle only players have very little backup value on the roster, and there are other developmental projects that are worth pursuing. Breno has no practice squad eligibility remaining, so his time as an NFL player could be coming to an end in little over a week. If Breno has any hope of making the roster, Matt Flynn will have all day to throw.

Charlie Peprah – To my knowledge, Charlie is not on any #1 special teams units, nor is he the top backup at either safety position. Charlie has hung around the back end of the Packers roster for a few seasons now, this camp was really his chance to step up, unfortunately for him he has been near invisible. He needs to have the game of his life to find a way onto the roster. When it comes to a roster spot, most of the players he is competing with are better special teams players, have more upside, or are better defensive players. It is do or die time for him to assert himself.

These are just a few. More than a 1/3rd of the team will be cut in the next week and a half, with at most 8 of them returning to the practice squad, for all of the players on the back half of the roster, the next couple days are the most important in their NFL career.

On a personal note, sorry about my long absence. I do plan on regularly posting again, and will continue to do power rankings throughout the season. I have developed a significantly more advanced and more accurate predictive model(s) than I was using last year, based off the same concepts but greatly enhanced, using 3rd down %, adjusted passing YPA, and home field advantage in addition to scoring. More to come.

Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

The Patriots still hold on to their spot near the top, their outcome this week did little to affect their placement. They are probably a few spots high due to the crazy blowout against Tn (likewise Tn is low), just one of the drawbacks to this method.

The top has largely remained the same with the Jets and Baltimore climbing on strong showings this week. Both likely overshot their true spot and will fall back a bit. Green Bay surprisingly drops, they couldn’t score enough against a Bears team sinking into the abyss; a blowout was needed to keep their spot.

As is there is a very smooth gradient from the bottom to the top, clumps of teams are beginning to dissolve. One interesting thing to note, Detroit and St Louis are worse than Indy and New Orleans are good, perhaps an indication that they are not as unbeatable as they seem.

Looking at the change indicator, Tennessee, Washington, San Diego, Buffalo, and Green Bay are the hottest teams in the league; Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Atlanta, New England, and Seattle are the coldest teams in the league, relative to their play earlier in the season.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

The situation largely remains static this week. The NFCE tie is broken for the division, however the 6 playoff teams have not changed for several weeks. Any teams that want to take GB’s or Dallas’ spot will have to make their move soon. In the AFC Baltimore has pulled into a projected tie with Cincinnati, however due to tiebreaks the division remains the same. Baltimore and Denver are the current wild card favorites, with the AFCE breathing down their neck. All other changes this week are up or down a game here and there, without any position changes or playoff ramifications.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Week 12 record – 12-4
Week 13 record – 10-6
Week 14 record – 14-2
Total – 144-64
Missed Last Week – Cle-Pit, Ari-SF

Overall a pretty good week. Missed 2 upsets, accurately predicted 1 minor upset (KC-Buf).

Enjoy!

Now that we’ve passed the third quarter of the season and reached the fourth, it is time to look back at the third quarter to see how they progressed, and look ahead to the fourth quarter and what the team needs to do to continue to improve. The team made a remarkable recovery in the third quarter, winning all of their games, and are now poised for a playoff push.

A look back at my third quarter thoughts shows good progress in the third quarter almost across the board, keyword almost however.

Our line has stabilized, the lineup has become a constant week to week, and as a result their performance has dramatically increased. A decrease in the number of offensive line injuries has gone a long way to solving this problem.

Aaron Rodgers has undergone a remarkable transformation, his indecisiveness from earlier in the season is gone helping him to reach a level of play that has few peers in the league. Over the 3rd quarter of the season, Aaron has played as well as any QB.

The McCarthy from past years has returned in full force. He has gotten back to the Packers identity, quick passing, high tempo, take some shots, lots of movement and substitution, and power running. Along with it, the offense has dominated time of possession, and has dictated every game.

Our defense’s pressure has been improving dramatically. The third quarter saw a rise in defensive front 7 creativity, and strong rookie impacts, which has helped the pressure. I believe that Clay earned his double against the Ravens, a doubled player will work wonders on the overall pressure scheme moving forward. We haven’t had a player worthy of a double until Clay took that next step last night. As sad as it is to say, the change from Aaron Kampman to Brad Jones has been a big positive for the defense; Brad’s coverage ability allows Dom to bring more ILB/CB/S blitzes than he could with Kampman, while maintaining pass defense integrity.

But then there is special teams, and the penchant for the yellow hankie. All you can do at this point is shake your head at that unit.

Now riding a wave after a strong third quarter, what should we be looking for?

The Return Game: This seemingly has gone from bad to worse. The team has been giving up at least 1 long return each week. Their own return units rarely even have an average return. There seem to be more plays with penalties than plays without. Any improvement will have a big impact on this team. We have one of the league’s top offenses and defenses, both units are dragged down by the league’s worst special teams unit. This team loses the hidden yards battle in a staggering fashion weekly. They don’t need to be great, but a little improvement will go a long way.

Develop Swagger: Something happens with teams, when they go on a 5-6 week stretch of solid play and winning, where swagger kicks in, a confidence that elevates the team. When swagger develops, it acts like a jolt in the arm, making good teams great. That shot doesn’t last forever, eventually a team comes down from it. This is often seen in the teams that dominate early, the swagger that develops around weeks 5-6. it’s effects begin to dissipate around weeks 12-13, even if the team still carries itself with swagger. New Orleans and Minnesota are definitely seeing this, both coming off of their worst games of the year. From an analytical perspective, ideally a team would be better off saving that jolt until very late in the regular season, letting the jolt carry them through the playoffs. The Packers, entering the fourth quarter, are very close to developing that swagger. It is no more than 2 games away. Keep winning, beat the Bears and Steelers, and this team will get a strong jolt of swagger at exactly the right moment. If so, the Packers will become a fearsome playoff opponent.

Find Playoff Focus: With the team controlling its own destiny yet not having earned the postseason yet, the team as a whole needs to galvanize its focus on the big prize. With the ultimate prize tangibly within their grasp, as well as an end of failure, there should be no more decent practices or off days. The team should have the focus and singular purpose that every day is a great day of preparation. The fact that teams in the hunt tend to shift into playoff gear early, while teams that clinch early take time off and let up, only to try to develop that extra gear once playoff preparation starts, is a big reason that many of the teams that clinch early are so ineffective in the playoffs.

Stay Healthy: Nothing that the team can control, but pray for luck to be on our side injury wise for the remainder of the year. We’ve thus far been able to absorb every major injury without a hiccup, but that isn’t a given for any more injuries.

The Packers have the look of a team on the verge of making a strong playoff push; continue what was begun and finish the job, ride this wave and run hot into the playoffs. The fourth quarter will ultimately determine how the final endgame shapes up for the Packers, or even if it exists at all.

Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

The Saints continue to hold their place at the top after reclaiming it last week, however Indy has closed the gap at the top. NO and Indy have clearly separated from the pack.

The Pats are propped up by the 59-0 beat down on the Titans, Titans are low because of it. I need to find a good non-arbitrary way to deal with the NE-Tn type situation, though I think that it will take care of itself in next year’s version. NE is declining and Tn improving (very low/high in the change indicator), however coming from such high highs and low lows, it hasn’t yet shown up that much in the rankings.

San Diego, Green Bay, and Philly have closed the gap on Minnesota. There could be a pretty big shakeup at the top of the order next week, with how close the top clusters are. The big slightly above average cluster of a few weeks ago has really broken up as teams has risen and fallen.

The strong trend of the year of the offense continues, a complete reversal of last season and early this season. 8 of the top 10 teams have top 10 offenses, whereas only 5 of the top 10 teams have top 10 defenses.

The Chargers continue their strong change showing again, which has been the case weekly for most of the season. They have ridden that wave all the way top 5 and could very easily make a push for the top 3 with a strong showing on Sunday.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

One trend that should be readily apparent is many of the best teams are on the bottom, and worst on the top. Good teams don’t play themselves and bad teams don’t play themselves, which gives a lopsided impression.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

No change in order this week from last, including the projected wild card winners. Indy joins New Orleans this week with the prediction of perfection, New Orleans was first projected at 16-0 last week.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Week 12 record – 12-4
Wekk 13 record – 10-6
Total – 130-62
Missed Last Week – NE-Mia, Pit-Oak, Dal-NYG, SF-Sea, Mn-Az, Balt-GB

A couple of big upsets this week, lacking some sort of momentum based predicting tool those will never be predicted.

Sorry about the yellow tint, I didn’t notice when I put the graphics together.

Enjoy

Earlier in the season, I touched on one of the things that I strongly feel helps create a champion. Namely that a champion rarely runs through the regular season nearly uncontested and continues that path through the playoffs to an eventual trophy. Champions need to face some adversity to forge their identity and harden their resolve. Step two in that process of forging through adversity is to apply it and ignite.

The Packers appear to be very close to that point. They have felt the sting of losing big games, suffered a meltdown loss to lowly competition, and faced heavy pressure from the outside. A much talked about player meeting occurred following the week 9 loss to the Buccaneers where the players apparently decided enough was enough. There have been notable changes for the better since, on both sides of the ball (special teams….that is for another discussion).

With 3 straight wins in a short 12 days, not only has the ship been righted, but the Packers find themselves favorites to win a wild card spot, in complete control of their own destiny. More importantly, ashes are smoldering, there is a small flame, the team is on the verge of catching fire, if it hasn’t already.

The teams that ride into the playoffs hot, having already experienced real gut check moments, are almost always the most dangerous of all. It is as if the hatred of losing is what drives them, more intensely than teams that haven’t experienced that sort of adversity. Right now the Packers are playing as well as they have all season on offense and as well as they have all season on defense (though they need to continue to build through the losses of Al and Aaron).

If this team continues on this path and rides a hot streak through the remainder of the year, they will be exactly where they want to be, possibly even a stronger contender than they were in 2007, which peaked during the 3rd quarter of the season. The goal of any team is to save their peak for the playoffs, and the Packers are in position to do just that. History has shown that teams like the Saints and Vikings, which run through the regular season dishing out blowout after blowout, peak a little too early, and often struggle in the playoffs.

The Packers have to capitalize on this building momentum, continue to improve, and avoid any letdowns. If so I would consider them a very strong contender at the end. Right now there is no better position to be in from my point of view than where the Packers are now.

 Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

New Orleans reclaims its spot at the top with a dominating win over the Patriots. The rest of the top 6 remains fairly static, with only the Charges and Ravens trading places. The Chargers continue their march toward the top. They have had a warm fire burning in the change indicator the bulk of the season, showing strong sustained growth week after week.

7 to 14 is a densely packed group of above average teams. Only 1.8 ppg net separates #7 from #14. Green Bay strongly moves up in this group this week, from where it was last week right at the bottom of it. Each team in that group has the power to get hot and make some waves. Houston and San Francisco are withing striking distance of joining the group. We’ll see a team or two rise above the group shortly.

#29 to #32 is a block of 4 almost equally awful teams that have been shifting around much of the season.

This is becoming a season of offense, at the top of the ranks the top offenses are rising up and clumping together much moreso than the top defenses, a reversal of last season.

Tennessee remains the hottest team in the NFL again this week. They are simply on a terror. Again though the change is showing a trend of declining teams at the top and rising teams at the bottom, really all it is doing is making the field denser. The teams near the bottom in change are predictable, each has declined significantly from where they began the season.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Very little change this week in order. In the AFCN, Baltimore and Pittsburgh trade places, the rest of the field remains the same. The AFC wildcard race seems to be a 3 horse race, with Baltimore and Denver currently leading the pack, and Pittsburgh a game back threatening, the rest of the teams will need to get extremely hot, the only team that appears to have the heat on their side is Tennessee. In the NFC, the wildcard race is starting to become clear. Green Bay and the NFCE 2nd place are the current favorites, with Atlanta a game back. All the other teams will need to get hot immediately, with no teams showing signs of igniting.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Week 12 record – 12-4
Total – 120-56
Missed Last Week – NYG-Den, Mia-Buf, Tn-Ari, NO-NE

Overall a pretty good week. Missed on the 2 predicted upsets (NO-NE, Tn-Ari), also missed the two upsets while picking the favorite.

Enjoy

With the unfortunate loss of Al Harris and Aaron Kampman for the season following the win over San Francisco, changes are going to have to be made moving forward to continue playing at the level we were at. Right now, more than ever, is when experienced coordinators with good football minds earn their paycheck. What sort of changes might we see out of Dom Capers?

Replacing Aaron Kampman:

Replacing Aaron might be easier than fans realize. This is one place where the 3-4 scheme really shines. The fluidity of the scheme allows for very different player types to be successful in the outside linebacker role, bringing different skill sets to the table. Many of the players that play OLB have to be hidden by scheme to some degree, and Kampman was no different. Clay is one of the rare 3-4 OLB’s that seems equally at home in virtually any role.

It was obvious that one of the places that Kampman was schematically hidden was in pass coverage. He dropped on occasion, but generally that was limited to little zone drops. He was not left in trail technique coverage on fast TE’s splitting the seam, and did not move over to press and bracket cover a WR. This is in very sharp contrast to Clay Matthews, who is trusted to do all of these tasks.

Kampman was also helped rushing the passer both by occasionally playing a 3-3-5 defense that put his hand in the dirt, and by overall maintaining a consistent launch point without an excess of twisting and stunting. In other words, things that he has been comfortable with. It has helped, though it has limited some of the overall defensive options.

Replacing Kampman most likely will be rookie Brad Jones, though Brady Poppinga and Jeremy Thompson could see time as well. Brad couldn’t be more different than Kampman, which could work to Dom’s advantage in a very big way. Hopefully this is where Dom Capers separates himself from former DC Bob Sanders. Brad is not the kind of player that can or should be plugged in to do the tasks that Kampman did the same way he did them. But on the flipside, he does open up a lot of things that were not previously possible.

Brad Jones is extremely fast and agile, and is especially noted for his ability to drop into coverage. Like Clay he can drop extremely deep from the 3-4 OLB position, and has the ability to stay with WR’s and TE’s, at least when he has some help. Dom almost surely will be much more comfortable with him in coverage, and won’t be consistently making an effort to have him rush the passer, limiting his coverage to the bare minimum as he was with Kampman. Of course the effect of this will be to enable more blitzing/zone blitzing. Clay will likely get to rush more, but I think that the biggest beneficiaries will be the ILB’s, I suspect that we will see them rush a good bit more.

Having been a 3-4 OLB, Brad likewise was not married to a small little plot of land on the line most of his career. I suspect that his launch point will not be as rigid as Kampman’s was, and be more like Clay, who moves around in the formation a great deal. This is greatly aided by the defensive line; they are playing at a level where the OLB’s don’t have to be extra DE’s on run plays, freeing the OLB’s up to shut down any attempts to bounce run plays outside, or pursue the tackle quickly. Every one of our top 4 defensive lineman can hold his ground in the face of a double team. Brad’s quickness will allow Dom to move him around a bit to probe for pass rushing weaknesses, and to allow for more stunting and combo rushing, where instead of an every man for himself, the LDE (typically Jolly) attempts to open a lane for the OLB moreso than plow through himself. The faster the OLB, the more effective that is.

While changes will be necessary, changes can be made to insert Brad Jones into the lineup without a big downgrade in defensive quality. Brad has a different skill set and will have to be used a different way, but the overall effect should hopefully be minimized. however it may change the way things “look”.

Replacing Al Harris:

This should almost be rephrased “replacing Tramon Williams”. Replacing Al should be the easy part, plug in Tramon, but replacing Tramon will be a task.

Dom can go two completely different directions with this. He can do exactly what Bob Sanders did, and literally replace Al with Tramon, placing him at the RCB spot over the split end on the sideline, or he can take the approach to keep Tramon doing what he has been doing, at least in nickle+ defense, only moving him over to Al’s spot on base defense. Either option should be equally viable, the route chosen will largely depend on how Dom adjusts to cope with the changes.

Al’s position at RCB is unique in that the route tree used by most teams is somewhat more limited. Few QB’s roll to their left. The timing of read progressions and pass patterns cuts out a good amount of intermediate routes, and if the QB turns to watch his split end, he is also watching his best pass protector, turning his back on some of his worst.

Though our defense plays all sorts of different coverages, if you had to group them into classifications, Al would be more of a man guy, Tramon more of a zone guy, and Woodson more of a rover. Al played the least amount of underneath zone of the 3. When rolling a S into the box or forward out wide, and using a CB as a S in a cover-2, 3, or 4, (forms of sky and cloud coverage), Al was typically a bail corner covering a deep zone, with LB’s or S’s covering underneath. Tramon bails much less, instead if one corner is used in the short zones more than others, Tramon is that guy. Whereas Woodson does a little of everything, generally in an effort to have him where the offense most wants to go.

When Tramon did fill in for Al last season, he did an excellent job basically doing Al’s job. In fact there seemed to be some differences where we might actually have had better pass defense, as we did run a little more zone during that time, not necessarily becasue Tramon is better in zone, but because he seems at home doing either, whereas Al definitely (at least in Sanders’ defense) was more at home in man.

One thing that we will likely see, with the hopeful return of Chillar soon, and Jones at OLB, is return to sparse dime defense. Prior to Chillar’s injury Green Bay rarely ran dime defense, even agaisnt 4-5 WR sets. The 4th CB did not see the field a whole lot.

If we do put Tramon in Al’s spot and replace Tramon, likely an increased amount of LB/S bracketing will be required. Which could mean less play in the box by Bigby and more zone drops by the LOLB. If we replace Al’s spot and keep Tramon in his, we are probably looking at 2 different players dedicated to the sideline, either CB shallow S deep, or CB deep S/LB shallow in distinct zones.

Whichever direction Dom goes, replacing Al wil surely stress our secondary.

The Potential Positives:

While the negatives of these injuries are obvious, some positives may be taken away.

Tramon will be a free agent again next year. This year he played for just over the tender amount. This is his time to grab hold of the starting job for good (even if Al returns, I don’t think that he will return as a starter). This gives Ted and his staff 6 games to determine just how much Tramon is worth, and if he is a viable starter. I’d like to think, if he makes the most of this situation that Ted will not tag him again, instead giving him a full starting CB contract while his value is still on the low end of starting CB’s.

It also gives Ted a chance to evaluate Bush as a defensive back. I doubt that he gets another chance. He’s been developing too long, this is a seize the moment or go away couple of games for him. If he can hold his own as the 3rd CB, he’ll likely stick. If someone else is given a shot after he is, because he didn’t seize the job, I suspect that this will be his last year. He have replacements at ST gunner now; his hold on a roster spot is much more tenuous than it has been.

With free agency on the horizon for Kampman, few Packer fans seriously thought that he would return to the team. The prevailing though being that he would be franchise tagged and traded (similar to Corey Williams) to a team that runs a 4-3 defense. With this injury he now has very little trade value and almost surely will not be franchised, chances are he simply leaves as a free agent.

This means that Kampman will need to be replaced long term this offseason. That task is much easier if Brad Jones (or Jeremy Thompson/Brady Poppinga) shows that they belong on the field this season, and that they are the long term solution. If not I suspect that free agency and/or higher draft picks will be used to fill this spot.

Young guys stepping up to fill an injury void and impressing is one of the primary ways that players become full time starters in this league. Lets keep our fingers crossed that we have the good fortune of that occurring at both spots for us. The players behind our lost starters are certainly physically talented enough to do so, it remains to be seen thather they put it all together.

 Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

New England retains its hold on the top spot, meaning a NE upset prediction is coming for next week in a battle of 1 vs. 2. New Orleans rises past Indy, getting back to #2, slightly behind the Pats. A NO win this week likely will propel them back to #1, a position they held much of the season. Minnesota is finally playing like a top 5 team on the scoreboard, and finally rises up to #4.

Two huge changes this week. Pit takes a big fall out of the top 10. There are two comfortable data points for them, one in the middle of the top 10, one around 16. They have waivered between both all season, almost as if they are two different teams. Incidentally it strongly corresponds to Troy and his health status. San Diego makes a strong upward jump following their blowout of the Broncos. It likely will correct down a bit, but they have been on the move upward for several weeks, similar to last season.

Overall the field is compressing, most of the positive change (via the change indicator) is near the bottom, most of the negative change is near the top. Seems that the top and bottom are correcting, the top isn’t as great as they seemed, and the bottom isn’t as horrible as they seemed. A lot of the leagues bad teams seem to be on the verge of making some real improvement. Tennessee however remains absolutely on fire.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Overall the division leaders remain stable. In the NFC however, Philly has moved into a tie with Dallas in the NFCE. In the NFC wildcard race, the Packers are currently projected to take one WC, and the one that loses the NFCE tiebreaker gets the other. The Giants and Falcons are in WC catchup one game back, SF and Chicago are virtually eliminated. In the AFC the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins are the current WC favorites, with the Broncos, Texans, and Jaguars a game back in the chase. The Jets are on the edge of elimination.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Total – 108-52
Missed Last Week – KC-Pit, Atl-NYG, Cin-Oak, Ten-Hou

Overall a pretty good week. Missed on the two big upsets. Predicted 2 underdog wins, got one correct (Mia-Car).

Enjoy