Week 1 Power Rankings


Calculated Power Rankings following week 1 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.Early season power rankings will always show a lot of fluctuation and overreaction to individual games. 80% of the data this week is the calculated preseason power rankings (see here for calculation methodology), with 20% being calculated from the past weekends games. Week 1 data will always be very poor on its own as the methodology for the week 1 calculation requires that the offensive scoring against an average opponent calculated in the preseason to be perfect for a given team, and the team perform to that level. Week 2 the games begin to interconnect, making adjustment of the offensive scoring agaisnt an average opponent possible. Week 1 is really just a defensive adjustment calculation-wise.

Previous rank in parenthesis, calculated net scoring against an average opponent listed.

Week 1 Power Rankings:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (2) – 11.9
2. Baltimore Ravens (1) – 9.3
3. Tennessee Titans (3) – 9.2
4. Philadelphia Eagles (9) – 7.7
5. Green Bay Packers (7) – 7.4
6. Indianapolis Colts (6) – 6.8
7. New York Giants (4) – 6.7
8. Atlanta Falcons (12) – 6.7
9. Chicago Bears (11) – 5.5
10. New Orleans Saints (5) – 5.5
11. San Diego Chargers (8) – 4.0
12. Minnesota Vikings (10) – 3.8
13. New York Jets (19) – 3.7
14. New England Patriots (13) – 3.0
15. Dallas Cowboys (15) – 2.2
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (20) – 1.2
17. Carolina Panthers (14) – 0.7
18. Houston Texans (18) – 0.5
19. Miami Dolphins (17) – 0.5
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16) – -0.8
21. Washington Redskins (21) – -1.7
22. San Francisco 49ers (24) – -2.5
23. Arizona Cardinals (23) – -2.8
24. Seattle Seahawks (27) – -3.2
25. Denver Broncos (26) – -3.4
26. Cincinnati Bengals (28) – -4.9
27. Buffalo Bills (25) – -5.7
28. Cleveland Browns (22) – -5.9
29. Oakland Raiders (30) – -8.9
30. Kansas City Chiefs (29) – -9.8
31. Detroit Lions (31) – -14.4
32. St. Louis Rams (32) – -14.5

The nature of the week 1 calculation meant defenses had a much greater impact on the calculated net than offenses, shutting down a strong offense was the best way to improve week 1. The picture will begin to come into focus much better after week 2.

There is clearly a group of 3 elite teams that have separated themselves from others, the Steelers, Ravens, and Titans. It is a 3 horse race between them for the top spot, we are still a few weeks away IMO from any team but those challenging for the top spot, though a dominant performance or two by the Eagles, Packers, Colts, Giants, and/or Falcons will put them in the running among the elite.

Expect to see quite a bit of movement in the coming few weeks as the early season pretenders and contenders separate themselves.

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