Week 3 Power Rankings


Calculated Power Rankings and Unit Strength following week 3 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

My computer generated power rankings for week 3.

This week the fraction of the preseason projection used to smooth is reduced to 40% of total this week, 60% is 2009 regular season data.

The number in parenthesis is the previous ranking. The decimal number is the expected net score against an average opponent, the difference between what the offense is expected to score against an average opponent and the defense is expected to give up to an average opponent. The number in brackets is the rank using 2009 data only. The overall rank is expected to drift toward the bracketed number.

Week 3 Power Rankings:
1. New Orleans Saints (1) – 16.4 [1]
2. Baltimore Ravens (2) – 11.7 [4]
3. Indianapolis Colts (12) – 7.7 [6]
4. New England Patriots (8) – 7.6 [5]
5. New York Jets (6) – 7.6 [2]
6. New York Giants (7) – 7.2 [9]
7. Philadelphia Eagles (13) – 7.1 [8]
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (3) – 6.2 [17]
9. Minnesota Vikings (11) – 6.1 [11]
10. Green Bay Packers (5) – 5.2 [12]
11. San Diego Chargers (14) – 4.7 [14]
12. Denver Broncos (19) – 4.5 [3]
13. Chicago Bears (9) – 4.5 [15]
14. Tennessee Titans (4) – 4.2 [19]
15. Dallas Cowboys (17) – 3.9 [13]
16. San Francisco 49ers (15) – 2.5 [10]
17. Atlanta Falcons (10) – 2.5 [21]
18. Cincinnati Bengals (20) – 2.5 [7]
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (23) – -0.4 [22]
20. Buffalo Bills (24) – -0.4 [16]
21. Arizona Cardinals (16) – -0.8 [20]
22. Houston Texans (18) – -1.1 [23]
23. Seattle Seahawks (22) – -1.5 [18]
24. Miami Dolphins (21) – -2.0 [25]
25. Washington Redskins (26) – -4.5 [27]
26. Carolina Panthers (25) – -5.8 [29]
27. Oakland Raiders (29) – -6.5 [26]
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27) – -6.6 [30]
29. Detroit Lions (31) – -6.8 [24]
30. Kansas City Chiefs (30) – -8.2 [28]
31. Cleveland Browns (28) – -9.2 [31]
32. St. Louis Rams (32) – -15.2 [32]

Last week there was a general lack of high net teams, with a lot of middling teams. A group of elite teams is beginning to distinguish themselves and make a run for the top. The Packers expected net scoring has changed little since last week, but their ranking declined 5 spots due to other teams rising up. I expect the Bengals and Broncos to rocket upward next week as the fraction of the PS projection declines to 20%, both are significantly held back by the projection. The Steelers need to win in a dominant fashion next week, they are on the verge of a big drop.

Top 5 Offenses:
1. New Orleans Saints – 35.5
2. Baltimore Ravens – 28.9
3. Green Bay Packers – 28.2
4. Philadelphia Eagles – 28.2
5. San Diego Chargers – 26.4
Ranked by expected points scored against an average defense.

Top 5 Defenses:
1. New York Jets – 14.0
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – 14.4
3. Indianapolis Colts – 16.7
4. Denver Broncos – 16.9
5. Baltimore Ravens – 17.2
Ranked by expected points scored by an average offense.

The Worst Units:
1. St. Louis Rams Offense – 11.2
2. Washington Redskins Offense – 13.7
3. Oakland Raiders Offense – 14.1
4. Detroit Lions Defense – 27.2
5. Houston Texans Defense – 26.8
The worst unit relative to the average opponent (currently 20.7 ppg)

Straight ticket weekly game verification:
Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Misses last week – Was-Det, NYJ-Tn, Hou-Jax, Pit-Cin

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