Archive for October, 2009

Is Raji Being Used Correctly?

October 31, 2009

In the last few months, I’ve seen occasional chatter related to this subject, most notably appearing as “insiders – rumblings” type things where a writer cites an unnamed source such as a scout that Raji is being used wrong by the Packers. Is this true? Thus far we’ve seen Raji used as both backup LDE, backup NT, and the extra big man in short yardage/goal line defense. His time at backup LDE has been the full responsibilities of the backup LDE, including play in sub package (pass) defense where the NT comes off the field. Most of his work has been confined to the LDE role and nickel work that goes with it.

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Week 7 Power Rankings

October 27, 2009

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 7 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

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They Aren’t Who We Thought They Were

October 26, 2009

Mike McCarthy

The last commentary related post that I made, I mentioned that the team had struggles. All teams do. The next step for this team was to figure out how to win despite those weaknesses, accent the positive and try to hide the negatives.  So are the Packers?

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Week 6 Power Rankings

October 20, 2009

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 6 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

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Protection Issues

October 19, 2009

Daryn Colledge

Thus far this season, the offensive offensive line has been the talk of the town. Opinions on the subject have ranged far and wide, from fire Campen, it is all Barbre’s fault, Colledge sucks, Aaron is holding it too long, Ted Thompson needs to be fired for poor talent. I applaud Bedard’s recent analysis of release times in the Mn game (Here). By and large, I think that it speaks to a lot of confusion on the issue, simply put it is hard to pin down what the issue is. Compounding everything is that the Packers lead the NFL in sacks given up, and that typically is the only stat readily avalable; as a volume stat and only part of the picture, overall it is a very poor indicator stat.

I went though all the stable QB situations thus far this season (Cle, Phi, Sea, Det, Mia, StL, Tam have not been), and tallied all the pressure metrics for the QB, there are some interesting findings. The three primary pressure statistics are sacks, hurries, and hits. Sacks are self explanatory, a hurry is a play where a defender chased the QB, but the QB got the ball away and wasn’t hit, a hit is similar to a hurry, but the QB is hit in the end.

Unfortunately the stats have not been updated for this week yet, so this is only through week 5.

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The 2nd Quarter

October 16, 2009

Dejected Lions

As the Packers enter the 2nd quarter of the season, fresh off a bye and a chance to self scout, here are a few things that I’d like to see. This goes back to the earlier point that I raised, finding a way to win despite team weaknesses. This quarter of the season presents us a golden opportunity. After a first quarter where we faced three quality opponents, this quarter we will face one quality opponent, and it will be at Lambeau (the Vikings). With a win against the Vikings, it certainly is not inconceivable that the Packers will be 6-2 at the halfway point. This team needs to find its identity, this quarter of the season gives the team a great chance to do so, and can should be able to really help boost the team with some positive momentum.

So what should we be looking for?

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Week 5 Power Rankings

October 13, 2009

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 5 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

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Defensive Metrics

October 8, 2009

Dom Capers

Now that we are a quarter of the way into the season, and have played a mix of teams, it is a good time to compare the metrics of our defense agaisnt the 4th quarter of last season, to see if there is any improvement. How is the switch to a 3-4 defense going?

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Week 4 Power Rankings

October 6, 2009

Calculated Power Rankings and Unit Strength following week 4 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

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QB Comparison

October 2, 2009

With the big game drawing near, Aaron vs. Brett, lets take a look at some of their passing splits that they have accumulated thus far through 3 games:

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