Week 4 Power Rankings


Calculated Power Rankings and Unit Strength following week 4 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

My computer generated power rankings for week 4.

This week the fraction of the preseason projection used to smooth is reduced to 20% of total this week, 80% is 2009 regular season data.

The number in parenthesis is the previous ranking. The decimal number is the expected net score against an average opponent, the difference between what the offense is expected to score against an average opponent and the defense is expected to give up to an average opponent. The number in brackets is the rank using 2009 data only. The overall rank is expected to drift toward the bracketed number. Next week the bracketed number will switch to the prior 4 weeks worth of data only, the use will be largely similar, a direction indicator.

Week 4 Power Rankings:
1. New Orleans Saints (1) – 17.0 [1]
2. Indianapolis Colts (3) – 12.4 [2]
3. Baltimore Ravens (2) – 8.1 [6]
4. New York Jets (5) – 8.0 [3]
5. San Francisco 49ers (16) – 6.9 [4]
6. New England Patriots (4) – 6.6 [7]
7. Minnesota Vikings (9) – 6.3 [9]
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7) – 5.7 [10]
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (19) – 5.2 [8]
10. Denver Broncos (12) – 5.2 [5]
11. Chicago Bears (13) – 5.1 [12]
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (8) – 4.1 [13]
13. Arizona Cardinals (21) – 3.6 [11]
14. New York Giants (6) – 2.8 [16]
15. Miami Dolphins (24) – 1.9 [14]
16. Green Bay Packers (10) – 1.7 [18]
17. Atlanta Falcons (17) – 1.2 [20]
18. San Diego Chargers (11) – 1.2 [21]
19. Houston Texans (22) – 1.0 [17]
20. Dallas Cowboys (15) – 0.8 [19]
21. Cincinnati Bengals (18) – 0.5 [15]
22. Tennessee Titans (14) – -0.7 [23]
23. Seattle Seahawks (23) – -1.7 [22]
24. Buffalo Bills (20) – -5.9 [24]
25. Detroit Lions (29) – -9.0 [25]
26. Washington Redskins (25) – -10.0 [29]
27. Cleveland Browns (31) – -10.1 [28]
28. Kansas City Chiefs (30) – -10.6 [26]
29. Carolina Panthers (26) – -11.0 [30]
30. Oakland Raiders (27) – -11.1 [27]
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28) – -13.1 [31]
32. St. Louis Rams (32) – -20.0 [32]

There is a large group of teams with overall positive net pounding a small group of awful teams. Detroit is right on the fringe of breaking out of that awful group. New Orleans and Indianapolis have separated themselves from the pack at the top. The difference between #5 and #11 is minuscule at this point. The 49ers jump was predictable, though the shutout may have caused an overshoot that will correct itself. I did not see the Jaguars big jump coming.

Top 5 Offenses:
1. New Orleans Saints – 33.3
2. Philadelphia Eagles – 29.1
3. Indianapolis Colts – 28.0
4. San Diego Chargers – 27.2
5. Baltimore Ravens – 27.2
Ranked by expected points scored against an average defense.

Top 5 Defenses:
1. New York Jets – 11.9
2. Denver Broncos – 13.5
3. Indianapolis Colts – 15.7
4. Pittsburgh Steelers – 16.1
5. San Francisco 49ers – 16.4
Ranked by expected points scored against them by an average offense.

The Worst Units:
1. St. Louis Rams Offense – 8.6
2. Washington Redskins Offense – 9.1
3. Oakland Raiders Offense – 10.2
4. Detroit Lions Defense – 31.6
5. Carolina Panthers Offense – 13.3
The worst unit relative to the average opponent (currently 21.2 ppg)

Straight ticket weekly game verification:
Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Misses last week – NE-Balt, Tn-Jax, Buf-Mia

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