Week 5 Power Rankings


Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 5 of the NFL season.  I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

See some of the early posts for the methodology that I am using to calculate power rankings.

This week I’ve completely dropped all preseason projections from the calculation, however I’ve added a few changes. To acknowledge the hot/cold factor of teams, I am running 2 versions of the calculation, from the beginning of the season, and the most recent 4 weeks. The recent calculation is then combined with the season long calculation at a 1:4 ratio, to tweak the results for hot and cold teams. It is also provided separately for information purposes. I expect this short term calculation to fluctuate wildly and over time highly diverge from the primary calculation, right now the only difference is the week 1 games.

The previous rank is in parenthesis, ranked by net expected scoring against an average opponent, recent calculation only rank in brackets (the main rankings should trend toward the bracket)

Week 5 Power Rankings:
1. New Orleans Saints (1) – 19.5 [1]
2. Indianapolis Colts (2) – 14.0 [2]
3. Atlanta Falcons (17) – 11.8 [5]
4. Chicago Bears (11) – 9.0 [3]
5. New England Patriots (5) – 9.0 [4]
6. Denver Broncos (9) – 8.5 [8]
7. Baltimore Ravens (3) – 7.6 [6]
8. Miami Dolphins (15) – 7.0 [7]
9. Minnesota Vikings (8) – 6.8 [14]
10. Seattle Seahawks (23) – 6.6 [11]
11. New York Jets (4) – 6.5 [12]
12. Philadelphia Eagles (7) – 5.6 [19]
13. New York Giants (14) – 5.0 [15]
14. Cincinnati Bengals (21) – 4.7 [13]
15. San Francisco 49ers (6) – 3.7 [16]
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (18) – 3.4 [9]
17. Green Bay Packers (16) – 1.5 [20]
18. San Diego Chargers (12) – 1.1 [10]
19. Arizona Cardinals (13) – 0.5 [18]
20. Dallas Cowboys (20) – 0.3 [17]
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (10) – -5.9 [26]
22. Houston Texans (19) – -6.1 [23]
23. Buffalo Bills (24) – -6.8 [25]
24. Detroit Lions (25) – -6.8 [21]
25. Cleveland Browns (27) – -9.0 [24]
26. Tennessee Titans (22) – -9.3 [27]
27. Carolina Panthers (30) – -9.3 [22]
28. Kansas City Chiefs (28) – -11.1 [28]
29. Washington Redskins (26) – -12.2 [29]
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31) – -17.0 [30]
31. Oakland Raiders (29) – -17.7 [31]
32. St. Louis Rams (32) – -21.2 [32]

Lots of crazyness this week. Lots of upsets and huge scores sent what had been some building equilibrium haywire. Atlanta rockets into third after blowing out the suddenly less hot 49ers, Chicago comes out of nowhere after many of their previous opponents adjust upwards. I don’t expect either to stay in those places long. The alignment is kind of weird this year, there is a large number of very, very bad teams, a few below average teams, and a large number of average to above average teams beating up those terrible teams.

Top 5 Offenses:
1. New Orleans Saints – 33.9
2. Philadelphia Eagles – 30.5
3. Indianapolis Colts – 27.6
4. Atlanta Falcons – 26.9
5. New York Giants – 26.8
Ranked by expected scoring against an average defense.

Top 5 Defenses:
1. Denver Broncos – 11.6
2. Indianapolis Colts – 13.6
3. New York Jets – 13.8
4. New Orleans Saints – 14.4
5. Atlanta Falcons – 15.1
Ranked by expected points scored against by an average offense.

5 Worst Units:
1. St Louis Rams Offense – 7.5
2. Oakland Raiders Offense – 7.7
3. Washington Redskins Offense – 8.4
4. Detroit Lions Defense – 29.8
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense – 29.2
Ranked by the greatest negative deviation from the average opponent (21.2 ppg)

Who’s Hot:
San Diego Chargers – 9.1
Pittsburgh Steelers – 6.2
Chicago Bears – 6.1
Baltimore Ravens – 4.7
New England Patriots – 4.6
Teams whose expected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent varies the greatest (positive) between the full season run, and the most recent 4 week run.

Who’s Not:
1. Philadelphia Eagles – -7.7
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – -5.0
3. Green Bay Packers – -4.4
4. Oakland Raiders – – 4.4
5. Kansas City Chiefs – -3.6
Teams whose expected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent varies the greatest (negative) between the full season run, and the most recent 4 week run.

As the season goes along, I expect the whose hot/not lists to become much more interesting, to help ID teams with bad starts playing good ball, or vice versa.

I added another application to my program, basically a strength of schedule calculation. I chose to use the power rankings as the data to create the calculation. The average weekly ranking of all opponents will be what is used to rank the teams. Two methods are tracked, what the opponent was ranked at the time of the game, and the most recent ranking of each opponent, taken to be the most accurate. Right now I’m only reporting data based off of the most recent ranking, though watching the other as well. I think this will give a little different picture than pure W-L as to schedule difficulty, to try to find a better way.

The number in parenthesis is the ranked difficulty of the future schedule. The number reported is the average power ranking rank of all opponents played thus far. Teams are ranked by the overall difficulty of schedule.

Strength of Schedule:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1) – 19.4
2. Carolina Panthers (2) – 16.0
3. Detroit Lions (10) – 11.8
4. New England Patriots (15) – 10.0
5. Buffalo Bills (8) – 13.8
6. St. Louis Rams (6) – 16.0
7. Miami Dolphins (20) – 11.4
8. New York Jets (21) – 12.4
9. Tennessee Titans (13) – 14.4
10. Chicago Bears (11) – 16.8
11. Baltimore Ravens (7) – 18.0
12. Cleveland Browns (25) – 11.8
13. Atlanta Falcons (16) – 13.75
14. Houston Texans (5) – 21.6
15. Green Bay Packers (19) – 14.8
16. San Francisco 49ers (22) – 14.6
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (14) – 17.2
18. Cincinnati Bengals (24) – 14.2
19. Minnesota Vikings (3) – 22.6
20. Oakland Raiders (18) – 17.4
21. Indianapolis Colts (23) – 16.8
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (26) – 15.8
23. Dallas Cowboys (12) – 20.8
24. Arizona Cardinals (28) – 15.0
25. Philadelphia Eagles (17) – 21.5
26. Washington Redskins (9) – 25.2
27. Kansas City Chiefs (30) – 16.6
28. New York Giants (4) – 27.6
29. New Orleans Saints (27) – 17.5
30. Denver Broncos (29) – 19.0
31. San Diego Chargers (32) – 12.4
32. Seattle Seahawks (31) – 14.8

I also added another application that uses the schedule programming, used to create the strength of schedule, current records, and the latest power ranking run, to determine an estimate for final records.

Estimated Final Record:
New Orleans Saints – 15-1
Indianapolis Colts – 15-1
Denver Broncos – 14-2
New England Patriots – 12-4
Minnesota Vikings – 12-4
Chicago Bears – 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals – 11-5
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
New York Giants – 11-5
Baltimore Ravens – 11-5
New York Jets – 11-5
San Francisco 49ers – 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles – 10-6
Seattle Seahawks – 10-6
Miami Dolphins – 10-6
Pittsburgh Steelers – 10-6
San Diego Chargers – 9-7
Arizona Cardinals – 9-7
Dallas Cowboys – 9-7
Green Bay Packers – 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars – 7-9
Houston Texans – 5-11
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
Detroit Lions – 4-12
Cleveland Browns – 4-12
Washington Redskins – 3-13
Carolina Panthers – 3-13
Kansas City Chiefs – 3-13
Tennessee Titans – 2-14
Oakland Raiders – 2-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 0-16
St. Louis Rams – 0-16

Estimated record uses the schedule matrix and power rankings, and assumes that the team higher in the current rankings will beat the team lower in the current rankings a certain % of the time, throughout the remainder of the season. These projections will change weekly with the power rankings and actual results.

The code captures the net expected points for each team, and compare them (basically equivalent to the line for a game, what the expected outcome of the game is), for every game remaining during the season, using the most recent data run.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

This is then used to compute wins and rounded to the nearest integer. (plus a correction made so that there are 256 game winners).

Power Ranking Performance:
Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7 (Ouch)
Missed Last Week – Buf-Cle, Car-Was, Balt-Cin, Atl-SF, NE-Den, Jax-Sea, NYJ-Mia

Advertisements

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2 Responses to “Week 5 Power Rankings”

  1. Aaron Nagler Says:

    How have I missed this blog until today? Great stuff Waldo. I’ll be here daily. Keep it up.

    • waldo56 Says:

      Thanks Aaron. To this point the only advertising I’ve done is through tags, my Twitter profile, and message board profiles. I don’t think that it was really getting out there too much.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: