Week 9 Power Rankings


Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 9 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

This week we see a change at the top, with New England taking it from the Saints. New England’s defense has been strong as of late, and the Saints hasn’t been as good. The Broncos take a hit after the loss to the Steelers, their defense has not been the same in the last few games.

Sorry, I can’t explain the Jets. If they don’t belong it’ll fix itself shortly. Miami is still strong. Dallas has been slowly creeping upward throughout the season, and has now solidified it’s place in the top 10.

The Texans are another team not to sleep on. Strong showings as of late on the defensive side of the ball. They are very strong in the change indicator.

Carolina has made some huge strides and dug itself out of the pit. They are above the horrible ledge that was developing, though that ledge is beginning to disintegrate.

Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit are all free falling, which is dragging Minnesota with them.


Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.


Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Power Ranking Performance:

Straight up with no home field advantage.

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Total – 88-41
Missed Last Week – Balt-Cin, GB-Tam, KC-Jax, SF-Tn, Den-Pit

 

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