Week 11 Power Rankings

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 10 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

 Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

New England retains its hold on the top spot, meaning a NE upset prediction is coming for next week in a battle of 1 vs. 2. New Orleans rises past Indy, getting back to #2, slightly behind the Pats. A NO win this week likely will propel them back to #1, a position they held much of the season. Minnesota is finally playing like a top 5 team on the scoreboard, and finally rises up to #4.

Two huge changes this week. Pit takes a big fall out of the top 10. There are two comfortable data points for them, one in the middle of the top 10, one around 16. They have waivered between both all season, almost as if they are two different teams. Incidentally it strongly corresponds to Troy and his health status. San Diego makes a strong upward jump following their blowout of the Broncos. It likely will correct down a bit, but they have been on the move upward for several weeks, similar to last season.

Overall the field is compressing, most of the positive change (via the change indicator) is near the bottom, most of the negative change is near the top. Seems that the top and bottom are correcting, the top isn’t as great as they seemed, and the bottom isn’t as horrible as they seemed. A lot of the leagues bad teams seem to be on the verge of making some real improvement. Tennessee however remains absolutely on fire.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Overall the division leaders remain stable. In the NFC however, Philly has moved into a tie with Dallas in the NFCE. In the NFC wildcard race, the Packers are currently projected to take one WC, and the one that loses the NFCE tiebreaker gets the other. The Giants and Falcons are in WC catchup one game back, SF and Chicago are virtually eliminated. In the AFC the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins are the current WC favorites, with the Broncos, Texans, and Jaguars a game back in the chase. The Jets are on the edge of elimination.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Total – 108-52
Missed Last Week – KC-Pit, Atl-NYG, Cin-Oak, Ten-Hou

Overall a pretty good week. Missed on the two big upsets. Predicted 2 underdog wins, got one correct (Mia-Car).



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