Week 12 Power Rankings

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 10 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

 Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

New Orleans reclaims its spot at the top with a dominating win over the Patriots. The rest of the top 6 remains fairly static, with only the Charges and Ravens trading places. The Chargers continue their march toward the top. They have had a warm fire burning in the change indicator the bulk of the season, showing strong sustained growth week after week.

7 to 14 is a densely packed group of above average teams. Only 1.8 ppg net separates #7 from #14. Green Bay strongly moves up in this group this week, from where it was last week right at the bottom of it. Each team in that group has the power to get hot and make some waves. Houston and San Francisco are withing striking distance of joining the group. We’ll see a team or two rise above the group shortly.

#29 to #32 is a block of 4 almost equally awful teams that have been shifting around much of the season.

This is becoming a season of offense, at the top of the ranks the top offenses are rising up and clumping together much moreso than the top defenses, a reversal of last season.

Tennessee remains the hottest team in the NFL again this week. They are simply on a terror. Again though the change is showing a trend of declining teams at the top and rising teams at the bottom, really all it is doing is making the field denser. The teams near the bottom in change are predictable, each has declined significantly from where they began the season.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Very little change this week in order. In the AFCN, Baltimore and Pittsburgh trade places, the rest of the field remains the same. The AFC wildcard race seems to be a 3 horse race, with Baltimore and Denver currently leading the pack, and Pittsburgh a game back threatening, the rest of the teams will need to get extremely hot, the only team that appears to have the heat on their side is Tennessee. In the NFC, the wildcard race is starting to become clear. Green Bay and the NFCE 2nd place are the current favorites, with Atlanta a game back. All the other teams will need to get hot immediately, with no teams showing signs of igniting.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Week 12 record – 12-4
Total – 120-56
Missed Last Week – NYG-Den, Mia-Buf, Tn-Ari, NO-NE

Overall a pretty good week. Missed on the 2 predicted upsets (NO-NE, Tn-Ari), also missed the two upsets while picking the favorite.



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